Friday, 1 March 2013

The Winning Ticket?

What a shocking result last night in Eastleigh.

The Lib Dems won with 32.06% of the vote, UKIP were second with 27.8% and the real shocker was the Conservatives coming in third with 25.37%.

Lord Ashcroft has been extremely quick with analysis here which illustrates some interesting findings.

The result might immediately seem to be a great result for the Liberal Democrats but according to Ashcroft only 51% of their 2010 voters voted for them again. Their majority was actually achieved by 23% of 2010 Labour voters who switched tactically to the LDs. Without them, the LDs margin would have been very slim and UKIP would have been tantalisingly close to having their first MP.

Around 62% of UKIP voters said they were unhappy with all three main parties - a big number that largely validates David Cameron's point that the UKIP vote was a protest vote.

But what does this mean for the General Election in 2015?

Well. In 2010 the Left of Centre parties (Lib Dems and Labour) got 56% of the vote in Eastleigh and the Right of Centre (Cons and UKIP) got 42.9%.

Last night the Right of Centre managed - 53.17%.

Ok it's only a by-election. But that tells the story. The only hope for the Conservatives is to form a new party with UKIP.

Note I say a NEW party. It can't be a UKIP takeover by the Cons. It would need to be a new party with a new identity that appeals to all those floating voters who want something new, something that three existing parties have failed to deliver.

Hague and Farage (as PM and DPM)? Boris and Farage? - Yeah right! (Nah)

Gove and Farage?


Post a Comment